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NFL Week 4 Line Movements
2010-09-30
Currently there are four games on the Week 4 NFL betting board where the point spread has moved by at least one point. Interestingly, for three of these games, the line has moved in the opposite direction of where the money is going. These fall into the category of the “smart money” opportunities that we presented a week ago in which you go against the popular choice and side with the direction that the line is moving.
To check out which teams the public is betting on, check out the Betting Tends page at Sportsbook.com
Last week, the line in the Detroit at Minnesota game jumped from 10 to11 in favor of the Vikings despite the fact that the Lions were the more popular choice. This suggested a play on the Vikings, which proved to be correct.
This week, Houston has dropped from -4 to -3 at Oakland while the Texans have garnered a vast majority of the wagering activity. We’ve seen plenty of success from home underdogs so far this season (13-7-1 ATS, 11-10 SU), plus Oakland is tied for second in the NFL in fewest yards allowed per game at 260.7.
The 1-2 New York Giants have moved from -3 to -4 at home against Chicago even as the 3-0 Bears are getting the lion’s share of the betting. Chicago was lucky to get a win on Monday night against Green Bay, while New York is coming off of a 29-10 loss to Tennessee in which it outgained the Titans by a whopping 471-271 margin. Three turnovers and 11 penalties for 86 yards did not help the Giants cause either.
Finally, San Diego has gone from -9 to -8 at home against Arizona even though most of the betting public is on the Chargers. A key betting trend indicates that the Cardinals have been dominant in the 10th month in recent years: Arizona is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was Arizona 28.8, Opponent 18.2.
The only game for which the line has moved a full point toward the side that is getting the most action is New England (pick to -1) at Miami.
Head over to Sportsbook.com now for your Week 4 NFL betting pleasure.
ARIZONA CARDINALS 2010 SEASON PREVIEW
2010-07-06
The Cardinals have won back-to-back NFC West Division titles, but a lot changed to their roster since January, most notably at quarterback where Kurt Warner has since retired. That bit of news plus some other key departures has Arizona hopes at a three-peat in danger. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series begins with a look at the 2010 Arizona Cardinals, including key stats & strength ratings, plus the outlook for the 2010 season and a prediction against the Sportsbook.com Regular Season Wins prop.
2009 Record:11-7 (+0 ML Units), 9-8 ATS
DIVISION:NFC West
COACH:Ken Whisenhunt, 4th year (31-13 SU, 31-22 ATS)
STADIUM:University of Phoenix Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:60 to 1, NFC Title:28 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:17 (#21 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+0.4 (#17 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 11-7 ~ 31-23 (57%)
ATS: 9-8 ~ 31-22 (58%)
Preseason ATS: 0-4 ~ 3-9 (25%)
Home ATS: 5-4 ~ 17-10 (63%)
Road ATS: 4-4 ~ 14-12 (54%)
Division ATS: 3-3 ~ 11-7 (61%)
Conference ATS: 7-7 ~ 22-19 (54%)
Favorite ATS: 3-7 ~ 14-13 (52%)
Underdog ATS: 6-1 ~ 17-9 (65%)
Over-Under: 7-11 ~ 32-22 (59%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +3.3 (#12 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +0.0 (#17 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.33 (#13 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +2.14 (#10 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -7 (#24 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 355.4 (#12 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 355.4 (#23 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 18.69 (27th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - at St Louis, 4:15 PM
9/19/10 - at Atlanta, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - OAKLAND, 4:15 PM
10/3/10 - at San Diego, 4:15 PM
10/10/10 - NEW ORLEANS, 4:05 PM
10/24/10 - at Seattle, 4:05 PM
10/31/10 - TAMPA BAY, 4:15 PM
11/7/10 - at Minnesota, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - SEATTLE, 4:15 PM
11/21/10 - at Kansas City, 1:00 PM
11/29/10 - SAN FRANCISCO, 8:30 PM
12/5/10 - ST LOUIS, 4:15 PM
12/12/10 - DENVER, 4:15 PM
12/19/10 - at Carolina, 1:00 PM
12/25/10 - DALLAS, 7:30 PM
1/2/11 - at San Francisco, 4:15 PM
Sample StatFox Power Trend for 2010
2010 OUTLOOK
The last time the Cardinals won back-to-back division titles prior to 2008 and ’09, the team was located in St. Louis. However, just when it seemed like the franchise was set to become a consistent playoff contender, the retirement of QB Kurt Warner, trade of WR Anquan Boldin and the loss of LB Karlos Dansby to free agency has taken away a strong core of talent, putting another postseason berth for head coach Ken Whisenhunt’s team in jeopardy…Although Arizona’s offensive numbers were down a bit from its Super Bowl season, the Cardinals still managed to place 14th in the NFL in total offense (344.4 YPG). Now that Warner is gone, replacing his 8,336 yards passing and 56 touchdowns the past two seasons is a huge question lingering over the offense. Matt Leinart, whose career has been slowed by injury and inconsistency, and newly acquired Derek Anderson (Browns), are next in line. Of course, any receiving corps that has the services of Larry Fitzgerald will present problems for opposing secondaries, and Beanie Wells should continue to improve after leading the team with 793 yards rushing (7 TD’s) as a rookie. The offensive line has a new face in free-agent guard Alan Faneca (Jets)…After finishing 20th in the NFL in total defense (346.4 YPG) and 14th in scoring defense (20.3 PPG), the stop unit more or less fell apart in the postseason, allowing 90 points in two games. Gone from the unit are LB Karlos Dansby, FS Antrel Rolle, and DE Bertrand Berry…With Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin, the Cardinals had one of the NFL’s most potent passing attacks. Now that Warner and Boldin are out of the picture, the running game may play more a prominent role. The defense, minus key contributors, will have to step up for the Cardinals to contend for a third straight NFC West title.
Sportsbook.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 7.5
StatFox Steve's Take: Matt Leinart is 7-10 as a starter for Arizona throughout his career, and with a more regular gig, he's capable of leading this team to a better mark than that down the road. However, the loss of Boldin and a few key defensive players makes that a tough task for 2010. If you consider that this team was average last season (dead even with opponents in yards per game), they look a lot less than average now. UNDER 7.5.
A New NFL Season – Let the Wagering Begin
2009-09-10
Keeping with recent NFL tradition, the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers open the new season at home before a national television audience on Thursday night. Pittsburgh, fresh off its second crown in four years, hosts Tennessee in a battle of the AFC's top two playoff seeds from 2008. Pittsburgh is a hefty 6-point favorite and backed by 77% of bettors at Sportsbook.com at last check. Get the latest breakdown on the BETTING TRENDS page.
The Titans (13-4, 14-4-1 ATS in 2008), who defeated the Steelers 31-14 in Week 16 last season and captured the AFC South title with 13 victories, are eager to be back in action after suffering a mistake-filled playoff loss at home to Baltimore in the divisional round. Tennessee outgained the Ravens by 180 yards, but three turnovers in the red zone proved too much to overcome.
Turnovers, a stifling defense, a deft running game and sound quarterback play from veteran Kerry Collins made the Titans the team to beat entering last year's postseason. And even with menacing tackle Albert Haynesworth (Redskins) gone from a defense that ranked in the top six in most categories, Tennessee is certain to be a factor in a division any of the four clubs could win and is 7-0 ATS in September the last couple of years.
Pittsburgh's competition in the AFC North may only go one deep, with nobody outside of Baltimore expected to contend. The Steelers (15-4, 11-8 ATS) have essentially the same personnel and are a safe bet to pick up right where they left off as 27-23 winners over Arizona in Super Bowl XLIII. Aside from an Achilles' scare in practice, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger enjoyed a quiet offseason, unlike 2006, and is primed to top last year's numbers (3,301 yards, 17 touchdowns, 15 interceptions) with a new second tier of receivers in Limas Sweed and Shaun McDonald (Lions) to go with veteran Hines Ward and Santonio "Super Bowl MVP" Holmes. Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in first game of a new season.
Roethlisberger passed for 331 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions versus the Titans last Dec. 21 in a game that saw Pittsburgh's top-ranked defense allow just one scoring drive of more than 40 yards. That came midway through the third quarter when Tennessee went 79 yards on 11 plays and took the lead for good on Chris Johnson's 21-yard touchdown run on fourth-and-inches.
Pittsburgh can expect a heavy dose of Johnson and LenDale White, but as the Titans showed in last year's meeting they won't hesitate to pass, as Collins went 20-for-29. That means Justin Gage will see plenty of action after totaling 104 yards last season against the Steelers defense. Look for the Titans to want to clock Big Ben just like last season, when they sacked him five times. Though Haynesworth will be missed, he didn’t play in last year’s matchup.
The Titans are six-point underdogs, with total of 35 at Sportsbook.com and are 16-6 ATS when catching points and are 8-2 UNDER in September.
If the opening game is to be joyous occasion in the Steel City, then the offensive line has to give Roethlisberger time to throw and not have him running for his life. Look for Pittsburgh to test Tennessee defense with deep shots to Sweed and rookie Mike Wallace. Defensively, the Steelers have to keep Johnson inside the tackles and prevent him from bouncing out wide. Pittsburgh is 39-18 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and has played OVER in seven straight openers.
In the last six meetings between these AFC squads, the OVER is 6-1. The excitement starts at 8:30 Eastern on NBC for the NFL lid-lifter and the previous year’s Super Bowl champions are 9-0 and 7-1-1 ATS in first game of a new season.
StatFox Power Line – Steelers by 7
NFL: Late Afternoon Kickoffs (4:05 PM ET, FOX & CBS)
2008-12-19
The late afternoon kickoffs offer a handful of games to build your betting ticket from. Suddenly hot Philadelphia travels to Washington to visit the downtrodden Redskins, Atlanta and Minnesota battle in a matchup of 9-5 playoff hopefuls, and the Jets look to end their west coast misery while staying atop the AFC East Division standings. See who your colleagues are siding with in these games by visiting the BETTING TRENDS page. Here’s a quick look at each with some forecasts from StatFox.
(113) PHILADELPHIA at (114) WASHINGTON
Having lost five of its L6 games, including last week in Cincinnati, Washington has been relegated to the spoiler role, trying to put a crimp in the postseason hopes of rival Philadelphia. The Redskins beat the Eagles the last time they met, 23-17 in Philly in Week 5. It was the fourth straight outright win by the visiting team in the series. The Eagles must hope for #5 if they are to stay in the playoff hunt. They can’t make the mistake of looking ahead to next week’s matchup with Dallas however. If revenge is the motivation, HC Andy Reid’s teams are 11-2 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss. The Redskins have lost five straight games ATS at home, winning only once outright. The UNDER is 11-4 in the L15 Washington meetings between these teams.
StatFox Power Ratings say: Philly by 8
(117) ATLANTA at (118) MINNESOTA
One of the games with the greatest playoff implications in the NFC for week 16 matches Atlanta and Minnesota, and both teams come in off of huge wins. The Falcons turned back Tampa Bay, 13-10 in OT to advance to 9-5. The Vikings share that same won-lost mark and actually look like a playoff caliber club of late, having won six of their L7 games. The biggest edge they might have in this one is getting the Falcons out of their Atlanta comfort zone. On the road, HC Mike Smith’s team is 3-4 SU & ATS, but scoring 10 PPG fewer. Minnesota is 5-1 SU & 3-3 ATS at home, holding foes to just 256.3 YPG. With HC Brad Childress’ team laying 3-points, note that the favorite is on a 5-0 SU & ATS run in the L5 h2h meetings, most recently, a 24-3 home win by the Vikings LY.
StatFox Forecaster says: Minnesota 23, Atlanta 22
(123) NY JETS at (124) SEATTLE
With his team’s playoff prospects hanging in the balance, the last thing HC Eric Mangini wants to fly back out to the left coast for a critical game. The Jets have been out West three times in ’08, going 0-3 SU & ATS, otherwise they are 9-2. However, they’ve beaten their current opponent, the Seahawks, five straight times (4-1 ATS), including twice in Seattle. Tied atop the AFC East with the Jets & Patriots, New York will look to improve its second-half road mark to 11-2 ATS under Mangini. For the Seahawks, this will be the home finale in the Mike Holmgren era, as he takes his 3-11 team down the stretch. Although riding the momentum of a win at St. Louis, his team has lost eight straight games ATS vs. teams scoring >=24 PPG, and is 3-12 ATS vs. AFC East foes.
StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings say: NY Jets by 6.8
NFL - San Diego at Jacksonville
2007-11-19
Two teams that picked up huge wins a week ago will meet in Jacksonville when the Jaguars host the Chargers. Oddsmakers gauge these teams to be fairly evenly matched, as the home team is a standard field goal favorite.
The hosts won a divisional tilt at Tennessee to advance to 6-3 (5-4 ATS). San Diego nearly blew a 23-0 lead at home to Indy but hung on to capture a 23-21 decision. The Chargers are now atop the AFC West at 5-4. For these two playoff contenders, this is the first meeting since ‘04, and they’ve only met twice in all, with the home team winning both SU and ATS. The Jaguars have played better football on the road, going 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS at home while scoring just 16.7 PPG. San Diego’s worst performances have been on the road. Highlighted by the latest loss, 35-17 at Minnesota where they allowed 528 yards of offense, the Chargers are 1-3 SU & ATS away.
The Chargers are a team void of consistency, a sure sign coach Norv Turner has failed to solidify his place as the team’s leader. It took several weeks to realize the power RB LaDainian Tomlinson could provide, young QB Philip Rivers has regressed, and the defense is in total disarray. There is little reason to put faith in their corner as trepidation and worry reign supreme.
The Jaguars have found the 2007 season to be equally as difficult, failing to justify high expectations with a lopsided offensive effort too reliant on the run and a defense shrouded in disappointment and controversy. The opposition has found tremendous success through the air against the Jags, putting the onus of the San Diego effort on TE Antonio Gates in the week ahead.
Keys to the Game- After three embarrassing road losses, San Diego players have figured out, "We're not an elite team at all," LaDainian Tomlinson said. To change, the Chargers need to bring a different mindset to the gridiron. DC Ted Cottrell run defensive principles will receive another workout with the thundering Jacksonville rushing tandem of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jaguars pass defense is in the lower echelons of the NFL rankings. They will have to take there chances that Philip Rivers can’t beat them at home, and close down L.T. The Jaguars are 23-11-1 ATS in non-division games. Despite lack of success thus far, if San Diego wins, they are in with 64-5 ATS mark as road victor.
Trends
San Diego is 38-21 ATS vs. pass defenses allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse
Jacksonville is 10-5-1 ATS as home favorite of 3.5 or less points.
StatFox Platinum Sheet Pick – Jacksonville (+ or -) points